Santa Teresa, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

003
FXUS64 KEPZ 041128
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
528 AM MDT Sun May 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Thunderstorm risk will continue Sunday in the Sacramento
   Mountains, while breezy southwest winds bring drier air into
   the remainder of the area.

 - Low precip chances continue off and on for much of the area
   Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 AM MDT Sun May 4 2025

UL low over CA will be the main player for our weather through
Wednesday. It will be slow to exit the area thanks to an omega
block covering the entire CONUS. For today, drier air will begin
to sweep in from the west with the arrival of the H500 jet nosing
into SW NM. West of this effective dry line, winds will become
breezy topping out around 15 to 25 MPH. Main impacts will be
critical fire weather concerns and blowing dust. I`m not confident
there will be widespread visibility reductions below a mile, so
I`ll hold on any dust headlines. East of the boundary, moisture
will be sufficient for isolated to scattered thunderstorms. GFS
and Euro showing around 500 J/kg of CAPE with around 50 knots of
shear. The NAM shows well over 1000 J/kg, but it is often too
bullish with moisture. SPC has placed much of Otero and Hudspeth
Counties in a Marginal Risk for severe storms with strong winds
and marginally severe hail the concern. Timing looks to be mid to
late afternoon. A few storms may also occur over the Gila but
instability will be meager.

By Monday the low will slowly shift across AZ. Much of its
moisture will be held just to our north with low to moderate
chances (15 to 30%) grazing Sierra County and our mountains. A
small trough/vort max will swing south of the low across Northern
Baja and Sonora before absorbing into the parent low late Monday
into early Tuesday, crossing southern NM. Guidance has increased
QPF related to this feature with the GFS, Euro, and NAM Nest
developing precip with this feature. We return to the dry slot by
Tuesday morning once this feature completely gets absorbed into
the parent low. With us remaining on the south side of the low,
the northern half of the CONUS will feature precip chances likely
in the form of a few instability showers or weak thunderstorms.

On Wednesday, the main low will have shifted into the Southern
Plains with another lobe of energy dropping south on its back
side. This feature will sweep through Central NM while weakening
keeping precip chances in the picture for mainly the northern half
of the CWA. Finally by Thursday ridging will take the low`s place.

Beneath the UL ridge, surface flow will turn southeasterly
sometime Thursday evening or night allowing a slow increase in
moisture. Thunderstorm chances will return to the forecast by late
Friday or Saturday as a result. That forecast is quicker in the
GFS as a weak low cuts through the ridge.

Temperatures will be below normal through Wednesday as the low
hangs around. We warm back up near normal for Thursday with Friday
expected to be the warmest day of the period, just above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 AM MDT Sun May 4 2025

Mostly VFR conditions expected with variable skies, especially
this morning. By this afternoon, generally FEW-SCT120/250. Winds
will be light and variable through around 16z before becoming more
south then southwesterly by 20z. Speeds will top out around 15
knots with gusts to 25 knots. BLDU may TAF sites with highest
probability at DMN (around 50% chance) with minimums of 2-3 miles
possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 150 AM MDT Sun May 4 2025

Dry air will push into southwest and south-central parts of New
Mexico this afternoon leading to single-digit min RH values across
much of the lowlands. The jet stream will nose over the Bootheel,
bringing up winds across the Southwest Desert lowlands, Black
Range, and portions of Sierra County. 20-foot winds look to top
out between 20 and 25 MPH. These winds combining with the dry
conditions will lead to a few hours of critical fire weather
conditions. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for NM Zone 111. This
will be the end of significant fire weather concerns for the
forecast period. For areas remaining within the moisture, isolated
thunderstorms are forecast in the afternoon, mainly for the
Sacramento Mountains and Hudspeth County although enough moisture
may linger for a shower or weak thunderstorm in the Gila as well.

The UL low will be slow to clear the area. Cooler temperatures and
some modest gains in moisture will lead to higher min RH values on
Monday with mid teens and lower 20s. Winds will top out around 10
MPH. Rain and thunderstorm chances will continue across mainly
the mountains with an uptick late Monday into early Tuesday for
the lowlands. The cooler temperatures and moisture sticks around
though Wednesday before drier and warmer air returns by Thursday.
This will keep low precip chances in the forecast through
Wednesday. Winds will top out between 10 and 15 MPH each
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  86  55  75  52 /  10  10  10  40
Sierra Blanca            81  47  75  47 /  20  20   0  30
Las Cruces               80  46  70  42 /  10  10  10  30
Alamogordo               79  47  71  44 /  50  60  10  40
Cloudcroft               56  31  49  29 /  60  70  10  40
Truth or Consequences    78  47  70  46 /  20  30  20  30
Silver City              69  37  61  37 /  20  20  20  20
Deming                   81  44  72  44 /  10  10  20  20
Lordsburg                76  39  68  42 /  20  20  10  20
West El Paso Metro       82  54  72  51 /   0  10  10  40
Dell City                82  48  77  47 /  50  40   0  30
Fort Hancock             89  49  82  50 /  20  10   0  30
Loma Linda               76  49  68  45 /  20  20   0  30
Fabens                   86  52  77  50 /  10  10  10  30
Santa Teresa             81  49  70  46 /   0  10  10  30
White Sands HQ           81  53  72  50 /  30  20  10  40
Jornada Range            79  45  70  42 /  30  20  10  30
Hatch                    82  47  72  45 /  10  20  20  30
Columbus                 82  49  73  48 /   0  10  10  20
Orogrande                79  47  70  46 /  30  40  10  40
Mayhill                  65  37  62  34 /  60  70  10  50
Mescalero                66  36  60  33 /  50  70  10  40
Timberon                 64  33  58  31 /  60  60  10  40
Winston                  69  31  61  31 /  20  20  20  20
Hillsboro                76  40  67  39 /  20  20  20  20
Spaceport                78  43  69  41 /  20  20  10  30
Lake Roberts             71  34  62  34 /  20  20  30  20
Hurley                   73  36  65  37 /  10  20  10  20
Cliff                    76  38  68  37 /  20  30  20  10
Mule Creek               71  37  63  37 /  30  30  20  20
Faywood                  73  39  64  40 /  10  20  10  20
Animas                   76  40  69  42 /  20  10  10  10
Hachita                  77  41  69  42 /  10  10  10  20
Antelope Wells           76  42  69  41 /   0  10  10  10
Cloverdale               69  41  62  40 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...34-Brown