Santa Teresa, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

499
FXUS64 KEPZ 290025
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
525 PM MST Tue Jan 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 502 PM MST Tue Jan 28 2025

 - Much cooler on Wednesday and Thursday as a storm system
   arrives, bringing precip chances to area mountains and
   portions of the lowlands.

 - We will be breezy to windy both Wednesday and Thursday
   afternoon.

 - Warmer weather arrives for the weekend into next week with
   temperatures early next week approaching record territory.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 PM MST Tue Jan 28 2025

Our stretch of quiet warm weather is going to come to a short end
(but never fear, it returns just as quickly). An upper level
trough centered near Las Vegas will continue to slowly slide to
the east over the next 48 hours. Sometimes as these upper level
troughs approach they are able to grab some moisture out of the
Pacific and throw it across the region to help add fuel for
precipitation. Other times as the trough approaches it pulls in a
lot of dry air from across northern Mexico, which can limit the
moisture available to help produce precipitation. This drier
scenario is the one that looks be working out this time as the
trough looks to be pulling plenty of dry air (dry slotting) into
our region aloft. Thus we have been trending precipitation chances
lower and lower each day. Best chances for precipitation will be
west of the Rio Grande and really west of the Continental Divide.
Rain and snow totals look light with less than 0.10 inches of
rain in the lowlands and the good probabilities (greater than 70%)
of getting an inch of snow or greater is mainly confined to the
higher terrain of the Gila Wilderness. Silver City could (40 to
60%) see one half to one of snow Wednesday. The Sacramento
Mountains look to miss out on this event with only a trace amount
of snow expected across the mountains. In the lowlands on
Wednesday we will see some breezy winds and on Thursday, the winds
will be a little stronger. We could see some areas of blowing
dust Thursday afternoon. A couple of factors will limit our winds
to below advisory levels, one, the timing and the track of the
trough are not the best for strong winds. Also the lee side trough
never really gets set up with the system, so that too will limit
the winds from getting too strong. The one other thing to note,
with the trough passage on both Wednesday and Thursday will be the
cooler temperatures. High temperatures both days will dip several
degrees below average.

Behind the exiting trough, we will have a zonal flow (west to
east) aloft which will allow for a quick rebound in our
temperatures, so that by Friday afternoon our highs will be near
seasonal averages and by Saturday we will have high temperatures a
few degrees above average. For Sunday into Monday our zonal flow
will transition more into a southwest flow which will continue the
warm up. By Monday afternoon high temperatures will be running 10
to 15 and in some cases 20 degrees above average. It looks like
February will begin with warm and dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 502 PM MST Tue Jan 28 2025

Southeast winds will become light and variable overnight as they
begin shifting to the southwest. Breezy SW winds will develop by
late morning Wednesday, with a few gusts around 25 knots at times.
Significant blowing dust is not expected at any TAF sites.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail with high clouds moving out
tonight, and additional mid and high clouds moving in from the
west Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 100 PM MST Tue Jan 28 2025

An approaching upper level storm system will increase our winds
both Wednesday and Thursday, but it will also increase our
moisture both days. For both Wednesday and Thursday we will see
breezy to windy winds in the afternoon. We likely (80-90%) will
see stronger winds on Thursday. The chances of seeing sustained
winds of 25 mph or greater on Wednesday is very low (0-20%), but
on Thursday the chances of seeing sustained winds of 25 mph is
better at 10 to 40% in the lowlands and better than 60% in the
Sacramento Mountains. The approaching upper level storm system
that will give us stronger winds the next couple of days, will
also give us a chance for light lowland rain and light mountain
snow showers, mainly west of the Rio Grande. With the
precipitation chances we will also see increased min RH`s both
Wednesday and Thursday. Min RH`s on Wednesday will be near 20% in
the lowlands and above 30% in area mountains, while on Thursday,
we will see slightly lower min RH values, but still above critical
levels. The drying trend will continue into the weekend with min
RH`s in the low teens in the lowlands and in the mid teens in area
mountains. Ventilation rates over the next couple of days will
range from very good to excellent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  35  55  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            32  52  26  51 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               29  51  26  53 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               28  51  21  53 /   0  10   0   0
Cloudcroft               20  31  14  30 /   0  10  10   0
Truth or Consequences    27  51  25  56 /   0  20  10   0
Silver City              23  41  22  45 /  20  40  10  10
Deming                   25  51  24  53 /   0  20   0   0
Lordsburg                23  48  20  51 /  20  40  20  10
West El Paso Metro       35  53  32  54 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                27  55  24  54 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             30  58  25  58 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               32  47  27  47 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   32  55  28  56 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             30  51  28  53 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           34  52  29  54 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            25  51  19  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    25  54  22  58 /   0  10   0   0
Columbus                 30  53  28  54 /  10  10   0   0
Orogrande                30  51  24  53 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  25  43  20  42 /   0  10   0   0
Mescalero                22  41  15  40 /   0  10  10   0
Timberon                 20  39  14  40 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  15  43  12  49 /  10  30  10   0
Hillsboro                25  48  22  54 /   0  20   0   0
Spaceport                23  51  19  56 /   0  20   0   0
Lake Roberts             22  41  19  45 /  20  40  20  20
Hurley                   20  44  19  47 /  10  40  10   0
Cliff                    14  48  10  54 /  30  40  20  10
Mule Creek               23  41  20  48 /  40  60  30  10
Faywood                  24  44  22  48 /  10  30   0   0
Animas                   23  50  21  55 /  10  40  20   0
Hachita                  24  49  22  53 /  10  20  10   0
Antelope Wells           25  51  23  55 /  10  20  20   0
Cloverdale               27  44  24  48 /  10  40  30   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...25-Hardiman